Tim's Web Log #3
Thoughts and opinions of an opinionated person

Wed, 14 Apr 2004

Stock Market Not a Net Win?
Are the people in the stock trading industry just complete lunatics, or what?

The stock market was down yesterday. The reason given just floors me: indications of good news on the economic front.

Huh?

Apparently, the stock brokers see good news, which means times are improving, which means the Federal Reserve might accidentally one day raise interest rates, which means money gets more expensive, which means corporate earnings go down, which means bad news. Sell, sell, sell.

That is the most incredible pile of bull$hit I've ever heard. Good economic news does NOT make a company less valuable.

Look, here's a secret forward-looking prediction from my always reliable crystal ball: interest rates are going to go up, then down, then up, then down, then up again. Does that mean I should sell, buy, sell, buy, and sell?

What a load of crap.

I am becoming more and more convinced that the stock market is not a positive contributor to the world economy. It is, as near as I can tell, completely indistinguishable from a slot machine in a Las Vegas casino. When I buy stock in Intel, Intel doesn't see any of the money. It's all 3rd- and 4th-hand transfers. It isn't benefitting the corporations, and it isn't benefitting the typical gambler (whoops, I meant "investor"). Who does it benefit? The mutual fund managers scraping their take every month, and the stock brokers taking a chunk out of every trade.

It's a racket, worse than insurance.


# From Christopher Baus at Tue Nov 9 01:16:11 2004:
The short term fluctuations obviously aren't predictable.  I always toke what the financial media says with a grain of salt. 

I've worked as a developer in finance industry for 6 years now, and it true, there is a A LOT of crap out there, but there is no doubt that the long term trend is up.  Companies are built to create wealth, so there is a lot of long term momentum.

I always suggest Warren Buffet for insight into the way markets are supposed to work.


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